Available by Email Only!

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Dec.                    ANTELOPE   VALLEY   REPORT                        2017
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jpBroker.com                        "Helping Investors Make Informed Discisions"                              800-270-8770
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The following information is the opinion of Jim Patton, Broker and is based on his view of the Antelope Valley real estate market. The information is delivered to subscribers the weekend after the Friday Unemployment Report. The Antelope Valley Report is available by "email only". Political issues may be discussed if their outcome could have a meaningful effect on the nation’s economy.

Redistribution of this report, without changes, is encouraged.     Home page: www.avLand.info

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Return of Homebuilders Anticipated                                                                            
Antelope Valley Poised for Eventful 2018

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In This Month’s Issue:

- Q 3 GDP, last revision, +3.2%, Q 2 was +3.1%, expect even stronger numbers in 2018
- Dec jobs: 148k new jobs, below expectations; jobless rate at 4.1% for 3rd mo in a row
- First major tax cut in 36 years signed into law by Pres Trump
- The FED raises FF rate to 1.50% as Yellen exits as Chairman; Powell era begins in Feb
- manufacturing sector now roaring
- Cal home sales,+2.1% MoM, median prices +8.8% YoY
- AV Home sales, -3.7% YoY, median prices are +12% YoY
- Cal begins to issue licenses for the selling and transport of marijuana
- Major Cannabis firm to be built in Fox Field area
- California City now up to 283 licenses issued for Cannabis industry
- Mike Tyson & partners to open “cannabis resort” on 40 acres in Cal City
- Pres Trump signs Space Policy Directive to return US to space- bullish for AV
- Marriott Residence Inn, 105 rooms, going up on Lancaster Blvd
- City of Lancaster approves a 20 acre solar farm at 75E on Ave J
- Dec (59) land sales pulls back from a stronger Nov (82 sales), but no trend change

In December, through ListHub.com (US only) my 52 listings got 365 views on 76 web sites
that market real estate; i.e., Realtor.com, LandWatch, Zillow, Land&Farms, Trulia,
Lands of America, et al. This does not include traffic to my own web site.

In December, through ListHub Global (international), 47 of my listings were on 114 web
sites in 65 countries
and translated into 16 different languages.



Antelope Valley Housing Data

Greater AV Assoc. of Realtors (12-20-17)
- In November, GAVAR reported 415 home sales vs October’s 510
- MoM AV home sales were down -18.6%
- YoY, AV homes sales were also down at -3.7%
- YTD thru Nov, AV home sales were up +3.3% vs same period last year
- Nov median sales price was $280,000, up +12% during 2017
- Nov avg sales price was $291,660, up +10.7% during 2017
- inventories remain very tight; active home listings on Nov 30th was just 913
- Over the past 12 months, AV housing inventories are down -19.9%
- Active residential listings on Dec 31st was just 826


In September……….Antelope Valley Median home prices
Source: DataQuick, released 10-26-17

93510- Acton (7 sales)
rural acreage, raw custom home sites
current median price: $599,000 ($229 psf)
median price change YoY: +14.5%

93534- mid Lancaster (41)
current: $235,000 ($150 psf)
median price change YoY: +28.8%

93535- east Lancaster (104)

current: $230,000 ($148 psf)
median price change YoY: +12.2%

93536- west Lancaster / Quartz Hill (116)
current: $326,000 ($159)
median price change YoY: +5.5%

93543- Littlerock / Juniper Hills (16)
rural homes on acreage; very few tract homes
current: $265,000 ($191 psf)
median price change YoY: +53.3%

93550- mid Palmdale (66)
current: $245,000 ($175)
median price change YoY: +7.9%

93551- west Palmdale / Quartz Hill (77)
current: $365,000 ($177)
median price change YoY: +4.3%

93552- east Palmdale (51)
current: $290,000 ($155)
median price change YoY: +13.7%

93591- North Littlerock / Lake Los Angeles (6)
current: $185,000 ($132)
median price change YoY: +5.7%


Antelope Valley Building Permit History

Source: Antelope Valley Press (as published)
bold red = housing boom years

1987- 5,948
1988- 6,750
1989- 12,384

1990- 2,020
1991- 2,124
1992- 2,764
1993- 1,348
1994- 1,115
1995- 861
1996- 900
1997- 965
1998- 861
1999- 1,442
2000- 1,129
2001- 1,712
2002- 1,588

2003- 2,225
2004- 3,985
2005- 5,076
2006- 3,565
2007- 2,194

2008- 1,019
2009- 565
2010- 528
2011- 292
2012- 250
2013- 182
2014- 151
2015- 193
2016- 459
2017- 300 + (source: AV Press)


Antelope Valley News

Antelope Valley Labor Markets
Palmdale, Nov 5.6% vs 5.9% in Oct vs 6.5% YoY
Palmdale’s workforce, 65,200, +900 MoM
Lancaster, Nov 4.6% vs 4.9% in Oct, vs 5.4% YoY
Lancaster’s workforce, 65,100, +1,100 MoM
On a YoY basis, Palmdale and Lancaster jobless rate has fallen 76 mo in a row

Kern County Portion of the Antelope Valley
California City, Nov 15.6% vs 15.8% in Oct vs 19.2% YoY
Rosamond, Nov 8.2%, vs 8.3% in Oct, vs 10.3% YoY


High Speed Rail / Transportation News

None this month.

Cannabis / Marijuana News in the AV

Nov 2- Here is a city by city, region by region, update on the legality and support for the
cannabis industry in the Antelope Valley.

- California City, full adoption of licensing and regulation to legally grow & sell. CC has removed
all caps on how many permits they will issue
for the cultivation, distribution, and testing of
medical marijuana.

- Kern County, unincorporated areas, voted to ban the comm marijuana business- all. In the AV
this would include the Rosamond and Mojave areas

- Lancaster, allows indoor growing for medical use ONLY; has banned the growing & sale for other purposes

- Palmdale, city council is waiting for recommendations from their advisory committee before acting

- Los Angeles County, unincorporated area, voted in June 2017 to ban all commercial cannabis
activity, medical and non-medical. In the AV, this would include Leona Valley, Littlerock, Quartz Hill,
Lake Los Angeles, Sun Village, & Lake Hughes. LA County has formed a Office of Cannabis
Management which is preparing recommendations. On Jan 2nd, the LA County Office of Cannabis
Management said they are considering allowing retail pot stores in unincorporated areas. In the 5th
Supervisorial District, which includes the AV, Santa Clarita, & parts of the San Fernando Valley,
the discussion is to allow a total of 5 retail stores.


Aerospace & Defense News

Nov 2- Update on the new B-21 bomber which will be built at Northrop Grumman’s
Plant 42 site in Palmdale………the Congressional Budget Office says that the B-21 is
going to cost $97B over the next 17 years. Cost estimates assume 100 planes will be
built. Although NG in Palmdale is in expansion mode, officially the company will not
say why. NG is adding 340k sq feet of hangar space, presumably for the B-21, or for
some other project the B-21 might push out. NG already has 1.5M sq feet of hangar
space. NG says they are adding 1,700 jobs over the next two years. That two year period
though has already begun………………………….

Dec 11- President Trump, signs his first space policy directive which directs NASA to embark
on a program to send humans back to the moon, and perhaps eventually to Mars. Absent during
the Obama years, this puts the US and NASA back in the “space exploration” business. The
increased spending in space exploration and defense spending is great news for the Antelope Valley.

The President’s directive is intended to once again make the US THE world leader in the space industry,
gain new information from the cosmos, and spur incredible future technologies.


Other Antelope Valley News

Nov 30- The City of Lancaster announces that Marriott will build a Residence Inn in the downtown
area, on Lancaster Blvd. The new Residence Inn will be built on what is now a parking lot, west of
Gadsden and north of Lancaster Blvd. The hotel will have 105 rooms with a parking garage on the
ground floor. Ground breaking should happen sometime in Q 1 of 2018…………..in addtion,
Regency Theaters has completed a $150,000 rehab on the existing Blvd Cinema and reopened it
in mid December.

artist rendering of the new Marriott Residence Inn

Dec 15- per a previous public development agreement, the City of Lancaster will pay
BYD $1.45M as reimbursement for left and right turn lanes on Ave H, at 7th St West
to accommodate BYD expansion. 7th St West has been renamed BYD Blvd. BYD
is in the process of meeting, and then some, all of its employment goals it set forth
back in 2013.............................

elec truck in BYD’s Lancaster factory


Antelope Valley Land Market

Supply & Demand

"Supply and demand, in the end, determines the value of all things."

- Adam Smith, "Wealth of Nations" 18th century Scottish economist

Supply (Inventory)
December, active land listings, 2,454
This month vs prior month, -162 listings
mo over mo % change, - 6.5%
year over year change, + 267
year over year % change, +12.2%

Demand (buying pressure)
December, land sales, 59
this month vs prior mo, -23
mo. over mo. % change, -28%
year over year change, - 19 sales
year over year % change, - 24%


Land Sales per Year / Average per month
2017- 911 / 76

2016- 870 / 72
2015- 695 / 58
2014- 646 / 54
2013- 662 / 55
2012- 400 / 33
2011- 366 / 30
2010- 371 / 31
2009- 325 / 27
2008- 475 / 40
2007- 1,637 / 129
2006- 2,648 / 221
2005- 3,376 / 281
2004- 2,372 / 198
2003- 1,240 / 103
2002- 679 / 56
2001- 407 / 34
2000- 307 / 26

December Final Land Sales (cutoff date January 7th, 2018)

Notice: The below information is obtained from the Greater Antelope Valley Association of Realtors MLS system, and while it is believed to be accurate, no assurances or guarantees can be made. Real estate agents and offices report each sale, as their escrows close, and input the data in the MLS system. Keep in mind, that data put into any data base system is only as good as the quality of care taken to input that data. The reported sales data are taken at "face value”, and should be verified before relying upon such data to make an investment decision.

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blue or black properties = residential or agriculture zoning
red properties = industrial or commercial property
dark red properties = multi-family zoning for units
Underlined properties = sale through jpBroker.com
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Acres     Location       APN     Price &       Contract       Zoning - Remarks
Terms      Date / DOM      Price / Acre


Kern County- Rosamond, Mojave, California City
10 160W n/o Holiday 261-120-25 $24,900 9-22-17 (33) Res, NU, flat, DR, $2,490
17.72 Mendiburu Rd 302-412-08 $475,000 9-22-17 (15) M 1, NU, DR, flat, $.62 cents

West Lancaster & Quartz Hill
19.67 130W & A-12 3261-3-13 $89,000 3-22-17 (142) A 2 2, NU, DR, flat, $4,525
2.5 78W & A-6 3229-11-12 $16,000 10-24-17 (362) A 1, WET, DR, HN, home site

Lancaster East, North, NE, east to Hi-Vista
150.85 140E & I, NEC 3358-11-15,16 $170,000 12-18-17 (125) A 2 5, elec, 140E paved, flat, $1,127
5 on 50E @ G-4 3152-8-40 $9,000 11-20-17 (53) Agri, NU, dirt roads, flat, $1,800

Palmdale West, Ana Verde, & Leona Valley
8.55 Tierra Subida 3054-24-29 $46,000 9-8-17 (185) A 2 2 , NU, pav, Ana Verde hillside, $5,380
1.25 Division & M-12 3128-17-6 $50,000 10-26-17 (94) M-4 indus, sewer, nat gas, dirt roads, $.92 cents

Palmdale Hills, SE Palmdale & South to Acton / Agua Dulce
10 Antelope Woods 3208-4-38 $75,000 11-1-17 (1,228) A 1 1, NU, DR, 5 HN, s/o 14, $7,500
2.11 47E & V 3048-14-39 $11,000 11-27-17 (1,439) A 2 1, NU, DR, flat, views, $5,213

Palmdale East to Lake Los Angeles
1.17 55E & Q-14 3023-2-163 $41,000 9-13-17 (4) R 7,000, E, pav, POG, HN, $35,042
4.94 35E & L 3170-15-3 $85,000 3-23-17 (281) L I, NU, DR, flat, $.40 cents psf

Littlerock, Juniper Hills, Pearblossom, Llano
5.03 170E & W-4 3036-14-38 $18,000 9-14-17 (122) A 1 2, E, DR, many homes near, $3,578
.91 98E & S-12 3044-26-39 $57,000 10-11-17 (9) A 1 – residen, WET, infill, paved, home site
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Questions? Need help or advice? Call OR email.

Jim Patton, Broker
http://www.avLand.info
“since 1985, helping investors make informed decisions"
BRE # 00776290
Office, outside AV 800-270-8770
Office, inside AV 661-943-8090
Fax - 661-793-7269


Jim Patton
jim@jpbroker.com

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